Michael Zimmerman posted on April 13, 2010 11:40
Each year the Colorado State University weather team releases its hurricane season forecast. This year they are predicting an above average season for the Atlantic basin. They believe the six month season beginning June 1 could possibly produce 15 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Their outlook is based on weakening El Nino conditions in the Pacific combined with warmer tropical Atlantic waters.
Highlights of their prediction:
- 15 named tropical storms
- 8 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
- 69% probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the U.S.
- 45% probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the East coast
- 44% probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf coast
Let’s take a look back and see how they did with their 2009 prediction. They anticipated 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. At the end of the season there were 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. This was the quietest year we have seen since 1997.
So what do all these numbers mean? Nothing right now. It’s a prediction, a forecast. It’s a reminder to everyone before the season begins to prepare for the possibility of experiencing a hurricane.
Thanks to 2004 and 2005 that produced Frances, Jean and Wilma, Dr. Steve Lyons, Tropical Weather Expert for The Weather Channel, became more of a household name to us in South Florida. Back in August 2008 he wrote an article about Atlantic storm season predictions and how they can be misleading. He talked about his personal experience with hurricane Alicia; a Category 3 storm that made landfall in Galveston back in 1983. That 1983 season produced only four named storms. Two became hurricanes.
Dr. Lyons summed it up best for us when considering these predictions with his closing remarks:
“It is not about the numbers. It is about where the storms go, where they hit, and how strong they are when they hit. Some say remember the Alamo. When it comes to hurricanes, remember Steve and remember hurricane Alicia in the extremely quiet hurricane season of 1983. Always be prepared!”